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FAA Aerospace Forecast Shows Opportunities Abound for Commercial UAS

2018-03-24

  

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In its latest aerospace forecast, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is predicting “phenomenal growth” in the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) sector.

 

According to the FAA’s aerospace forecast for fiscal years 2018-2038, the small model (hobbyist) UAS fleet is forecast to more than double in size from 1.1 million vehicles in 2017 to 2.4 million units in 2022. The average annual growth rate over the five-year forecast period is 16.9%.

The FAA has also developed high and low ranges around the small model UAS fleet forecast, reflecting uncertainty about the public’s continued adoption of this new technology, the agency says.

 

In the high case, the small model UAS fleet by 2022 is about 3.2 million units. In the low case, the small model UAS fleet by 2022 is about 2.0 million units.

 

On the other hand, according to the report, the small non-model (commercial) UAS fleet is forecast to grow from 110,604 in 2017 to 451,800 in 2022. The average annual growth rate over the five-year forecast period is 32.5%.

 

In a high case, the small non-model fleet is 717,895 in 2022, and the average annual growth rate over the five-year forecast period is 45.4%. As for a low case, the FAA says in its report that “unlike the model counterpart, it is extremely difficult to put a lower bound on the growth of the non-model sector due to its composition (i.e., consumer vs. professional grades) and the varying business opportunities and growth paths.”

 

FAA Aerospace Forecast Shows Opportunities Abound for Commercial UAS

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast

The FAA notes that its small non-model UAS fleet size forecast contains certain broad assumptions about operating limitations for small UAS during the next five years, based on the basic constraints of existing regulations, including daytime operations, within visual line of sight, and a single pilot operating only one small UAS at a time. The main difference in the high and base forecasts is the differing assumptions on how quickly the regulatory environment will evolve, enabling the more widespread routine uses of drones for commercial purposes, the agency explains.

 

The report says the commercial sector is divided into two types of drones: consumer-grade, averaging $2,500 per unit, and professional-grade, averaging $25,000 per unit.

 

Currently, the consumer-grade dominates the non-model sector, with a market share approaching 98 percent,” the report says. “However, as the sector matures and the industry begins to consolidate, the share of consumer-grade non-model aircraft is likely to decline but remain dominant. By 2022, FAA projects this sub-sector will have less than a 90 percent share of the overall consumer-grade non-model UAS sector.”

 

As for commercial uses, the FAA says, “A review of market analyses and industry information reveals their present uses (following chart) have not changed much from last year”:

 

faa

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast

In addition, the FAA forecasts that the number of remote pilots will increase from 73,673 in 2017 to 301,000 in 2022. The average annual growth rate over the five-year forecast period is 32.4%.

 

The report says remote pilot certifications (RPCs) “are set to experience tremendous growth following the growth trends of the non-model sUAS sector.”

 

Starting from the base of 73,673 RPCs in 2017, non-model activities may require over 300,000 new remote pilots in five years, providing tremendous opportunities for growth in employment associated with commercial activities of the UAS.”

 

 

在最新的航空航天预测中,美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)预测无人机系统(UAS)行业将出现“惊人的增长”。

    根据美国联邦航空局对2018-2038财政年度的航空航天预测,预计小模型(爱好者)无人机系列的规模将从2017年的110万架增加到2022年的240万架。平均每年增长率超过五年预期的16.9%

美国联邦航空局还对小型无人机队预测的高低范围进行了研究,这反映了公众对这项新技术的继续接受的不确定性。

在高的情况下,到2022年的小型无人机系列车队约为320万架。在低的情况下,到2022年的小型无人机系列车队约为200万辆。

另一方面,据报道,小型非商业性无人机系统预计将从2017年的110,604增加到2022年的451,800。五年预测期间的平均年增长率为32.5%。

在一个较高的情况下,2022年小型非模型机队为717,895人,五年预测期间的平均年增长率为45.4%。对于一个较低的情况,FAA在其报告中称,“与模型部门不同的是,由于非模型部门的组成(即消费者与专业人员的等级)以及不断变化的商业机会和增长路径,非模型部门的增长非常困难。”

 

美国联邦航空局的航天预报显示商业性无人机的机会有很多

资料来源:FAA航空航天预报

美国联邦航空局指出,根据包括日间作业在内的现行规定的基本限制,视觉视线内的小型无人机系统在未来五年内对小型无人机系统的作业限制有一些广泛的假设,单一驾驶员一次只能操作一个小型无人机。该机构解释说,高基数和基数预测的主要区别在于对监管环境发展速度的不同假设,使无人驾驶飞机更广泛地用于商业用途。

该报告称,商业部门分为两类无人机:消费级,平均每台2,500美元;专业级,平均每台25,000美元。

报告称:“目前,消费者级别占据非模型行业的主导地位,市场份额接近98%。” “然而,随着行业的成熟和行业的开始整合,消费级非模型飞机的份额可能会下降,但仍占优势。到2022年,FAA预计该子行业在整个消费级非模型无人机领域的份额不会超过90%。“

至于商业用途,美国联邦航空局称:“市场分析和行业信息回顾显示,它们目前的用途与去年相比变化不大。”

 

美国联邦航空局

资料来源:FAA航空航天预报

此外,美国联邦航空局预测,远程飞行员数量将从2017年的73,673人增加到2022年的301,000人。五年预测期间的平均年增长率为32.4%。

该报告称,远程飞行员证书(RPC)“将随着非模型sUAS部门的增长趋势而经历巨大的增长。”

“从2017年的73,673RPC的基数开始,五年内非模型活动可能需要超过30万个新的远程试点,为与无人机的商业活动相关的就业增长提供了巨大的机会。”


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